It is widely believed that the incidence of reoffending of serious sexual offenders is very much higher than studies such as this, which only count reconvictions, may suggest. However, by how much reconviction rates under-represent the true rate of reoffending remains at present a matter of speculation. For instance, the fact that there are a large number of hidden sexual victimizations does not tell us what proportion of such offences is being committed with impunity by already convicted sexual offenders.
It is
well known that there is a strong relationship between frequency of offending
and the probability of being reconvicted at some time.
On the other hand, it
is important to recognize that one cannot infer from
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(a) the fact that some offenders when arrested admit to a large number of hidden offences over a long period of time; that |
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(b) the majority of released sex offenders who have not been reconvicted are also 'hidden' multiple offenders. |
As Don Grubin (1998)
has pointed out, it is probable that predatory sex offenders who commit
offences against a very large number of victims 'are not typical' (see also
Broadhurst 2000), Furthermore, the longer offenders are followed-up the more
likely it will be that hitherto hidden offending will come to light through
convictions.
The ultimate challenge is to obtain better knowledge of
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the relationship between re-offending and reconviction, |
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of the 'real' rate of reoffending, |
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of the circumstances which lead to sexual reoffending, and |
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of the protective factors which might reduce that propensity. |
We agree with Friendship and Thornton that
efforts should be made (as in the recent study of the risk posed by
psychiatric patients by John Monahan and Henry Steadman 2000) to obtain
information from other sources in addition to records of reconviction (see
also Lidz et al. 1993). However, the ethical and practical problems of
doing so will be formidable, especially because such studies would run the
risk of 'outing' sex offenders who no longer were involved in sexual crime.
The
findings of the current study have challenged a number of preconceptions about
the risks posed by sex offenders emerging from long-term imprisonment. In
particular, it has been shown that much is to be gained by 'disaggregating'
the category 'sexual offender'. However, the validity of the findings will
need to be tested through further studies, based on larger samples, more
complete information, and even longer follow-up periods.