offenders emerging from long-term imprisonment
Study of Their Long-term Reconviction Rates and
of Parole Board Members' Judgements of Their Risk
Hood, Stephen Shute, Martina Feilzer and Aidan Wilcox [*]
J. Criminol, (2002) 42, 371-394
Study in Context
Brief Profile of the Sample
and Type of Reconvictions
of Risk Related to Reconviction
Another Method of Risk Assessment: Static-99
More Might be Done to Improve Knowledge of Sexual Reoffending?
study challenges a number of preconceptions
about the risks posed by sex offenders who have been sentenced to long determinate
terms of imprisonment: 162 prisoners were followed-up for four years
and 94 for six years.
The category 'Sexual offender' was disaggregated
in order to examine reconviction rates of offenders against adults as compared
with offenders against children, whether in an intrafamilial or
extrafamilial setting, and to explore evidence of 'specialization '.
study also analysed the extent to which members of the Parole Board, in
deliberating on the suitability of these prisoners for parole, correctly identified
as 'high risks ' those who were subsequently reconvicted of a sexual or
serious violent crime. These 'clinical' predictions were compared with those
derived from an actuarial prediction instrument for sex offenders, The
findings have implications for both sentencing and parole.
Roger Hood is Professor of criminology and Director of the
Centre for Criminological
Research, University of Oxford, where Mattina Feilzer and Aidan Wilcox are
Shute is Professor of Criminal Justice, School of Law, University of
Birmingham, and an associate of the Oxford Centre.
study was partly funded by a grant from the Home Office Research Development
and Statistics Directorate and to Mollie Weatheritt of the Parole Board for
England and Wales both for their support and for their helpful comments
on an earlier draft.
Shute thanks the University of Birmingham for the sabbatical leave which made
it possible for him to work on this project in Oxford.